Turkey has threatened to reintroduce the death penalty thereby jeopardizing its admission to the European Union (EU). Nice becomes the center of investigations due to terrorist attacks. The state of emergency is extended in France until January 2017. Germany suffers a tragic attack to passengers from the self-proclaimed Islamic State. The United Kingdom breaks-up with Europe. Everything points towards a new outbreak of nationalism supported in part by the series of migrations which have taken place during the last years. Furthermore, the economic crisis has opened a tense breach in terms of social tension between the underprivileged sectors and the middle class. It seems like the community institutionality model is not offering the expected results.
“God moves the player and the player moves the piece. What God behind God starts the plot of dust and time and dream and agony?” (Chess from Jorge Luis Borges).
The play did not go well for David Cameron. In his rush to please the conservative party, he summoned a referendum in order to contain the growth of the right-wing UKIP anti-EU party and to keep his own party together. Today the United Kingdom faces a worrying situation. On July 19th, the international monetary fund (IMF) lowered the growth expectations for the EU due to the Brexit. It has been calculated in 1.4%, about two tenths less than the previous 1.6%. According to Christine Lagarde: “The result of the vote in United Kingdom, which surprised the world financial markets, implies the materialization of an important risk to the down-low for the world economy. Consequently, the perspectives of the world economy for 2016 – 17 have deteriorated, despite the favorable results compared to what was expected and which were registered in early 2016”. The uncertainty that grows increasingly makes the community institutions tremble.
For our region, the situation is different. The EU has deepen its leadership by destining 10% of the total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Latin America, even before China, Russia and India together. The investment exceeds 5 million euro. The most important commercial partners in the area are Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Colombia and Peru.
The “everyone on its own” principle under the individualistic logic has enhanced the nationalist traces, therefore weakening the community spirit which was born in mid twentieth century in order to finish world conflicts. Peace and cooperation have joined several cultures. Nowadays, the wave of insecurity generated by the unsolved migration problems has revealed a structural weakness in the sense of community belonging. There is no superior common good to be protected but rather an individual interest to be defended.
The European commission calculates that the Brexit will cost the EU about 0.5% of the GDP. So we are back to economic calculations. The endemic illnesses are not always economic but rather existential.
Although the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi considers that there is still not “enough information to act”, the ECB governing Council has shown its will to act with total freedom in order to guarantee the full operation of the Community economy.
The symbolic face-off between the new British prime minister, Theresa May, and president Francois Hollande, regarding the Brexit, will imply the assessment of the formula to be applied. Who is the one with the rush? Hollande insists in the respect for the Four Freedoms: free movement of goods, services, capital and people. Meanwhile, May limits the conditions to the decisions taken in the referendum on the past June 23, which defended the flag of restriction to immigration from the continent. “We are leaving the EU, not Europe”. That simple phrase is weak altogether.